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What Do Aston Villa Need For Automatic Promotion?

What Do Aston Villa Need For Automatic Promotion?


Our new poll asks how many more games you think Villa will win, DeanoVilla has looked at what we'll need for automatic promotion.

Just spotted the poll on the right hand side which seemed to suggest we need another 11 wins from our remaining 15 games to assure auto promotion, so it got me wondering, historically is that accurate?

Below are the amount of points that would have secured automatic promotion in seasons gone by -

2016/17 - 86
2015/16 - 89
2014/15 - 87
2013/14 - 86
2012/13 - 78
2011/12 - 87
2010/11 - 81
2009/10 - 80
2008/09 - 81
2007/08 - 76
2006/07 - 85
2005/06 - 82
2004/05 - 86
2003/04 - 80
2002/03 - 81
2001/02 - 84
2000/01 - 87

So the mean average over the last 17 seasons would be 83.3 (lets round up to 84 points).

The median average also happens to be 84 points.



To be on the safe side lets set a target of 87. Only once in the last 17 years has it been required to achieve more than 87 points to gain auto promotion.

So that means we need another 28 points.

9 wins and a draw.
8 wins and 4 draws.

I think we're more than capable of that. Premiership here we come!

Read more in the forum thread: Click Here



Click here to join in the debate on the club forum.

Writer:DeanoVilla
Date:Wednesday February 14 2018
Time: 2:08PM

Comments

0
win, win, win, win and so on!
The Fear
14/02/2018 14:59:00
0
9 wins and some draws would do it
The Fear
14/02/2018 15:14:00
0
It's a real possibility now.
sirdennis
14/02/2018 15:40:00
0
I'd be happy with 8 wins and 4 draws or something very similar.
Pride of Lions
14/02/2018 16:39:00
0
I voted for 6 to 10 wins, and believe 9 or 10 is a realistic target. That, I think, is promotion, especially after Derby failed to win last night. Derby and Cardiff are the main threats obviously, but both have some hard games too, including coming to Villa Park and they play eachother. So for me, 9 or 10 will do it.
gordonsleftboot
14/02/2018 18:15:00
0
Fulham v Villa - 0 -1 Villa v Preston - 2-0 Wednesday v Villa - 1-2 Villa v QPR - 3-1 Sunderland v Villa - 0-2 Villa v Wolves - 1-1 Bolton v Villa - 0-1 Hull v Villa - 1-2 Norwich v Villa - 1-1 Villa v Cardiff 1-1 Villa v Leeds 2-1 Ipswich v Villa 1-1 Villa v Derby 2-2 Millwall v Villa - 0-2 Heard it here first. 30 points
Lewis1980
14/02/2018 19:19:00
0
Its probably just as important that if we do lose games, they aren't when Cardiff or Derby come to VP. Fulham look dangerous too, they are on a run similar to ours at the moment
garygaryshaw
14/02/2018 20:46:00
0
We’re just about two-thirds of the way through the season. We’re looking good lately, very good. But, there seems to be a feeling that promotion is pretty much done and dusted. Things are so tight that one small blip could be disastrous. It’s not so long since our last bad run of form. Maybe the last few years have filled me with doom and gloom, but the chickens will only be counted when promotion is confirmed. We’re good enough, but ... . Hope and all that !
Beovilla
14/02/2018 23:15:00
0
Really do need to win against our rivals , they are '6 pointers' , starting with Fulham which would open up a big gap between us and them, we need to keep the pressure on. We have the squad and they must be utilised well. A big positive is that we have many goalscorer's, the load is being spread. Just hope we can open up a gap and by the time the last few games are here we are 'locked' into 2nd place .
Eddy1
15/02/2018 00:07:00
0
Any one of the present top 6 teams at the moment are 6 pointers but it almost as important not to lose against them so any draw against would be nearly as good.
HonestDave
15/02/2018 20:39:00
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