Writer: Gordonsleftboot / BodyButter
Date:Monday March 5 2012
I think Gordonsleftboot must be a mind reader! I was setting out to do an article today on the relegation fight and hey presto, an article submission. So we`ll mix and match this I think!
First off, Gordonsleftboot says:
Relegation? You're having a laugh!
OK mathematically we could still go down. The probability of it happening is extremely remote.
Because with 11 games to go we are effectively 11 points (including goal difference) in front of 2 sides and 9 in front of 3 others.
These teams have taken an average of .71 and .81 points a game. On this basis they can achieve a further 8 and 9 points each. Assuming we take just 1 more point from 11 games and they follow the same pattern and we are safe.
OK maths is a poor predictor in football BUT if we are to be overtaken then 3 of these five teams are going to have to win at least 5 of their last 11 games if we keep getting the occasional draw. Likely? Nope.
Away from the maths, the key for me is the fitness of Petrov and Herd. Herd was immense at Blackburn and is a vital part of the midfield. He has come through from the youth with little fuss and may prove to be the best of the lot over time. Whilst Weimann only played for about 2 minutes, he had one attempt on goal and something about his approach marked him out as maybe the goalscorer we need.
Yes this is a season of transition and I'm as bored reading that phrase as anyone else. But the finances are getting sorted: the club has bitten the manager pay-offs bullet and profit from Young and Downing has not yet been shown in the accounts yet. Beye has gone, saving about 3% of revenue and other savings have and will be made. The mess left by other managers is being cleared out.
The club is turning the corner and is ready to rise again. The sooner the fans get back behind the club the better. The club will be safe this season, lets calm down and support the club.
We have a thread on the important four games (two now played... Wigan and Blackburn draws) which follows a similar theme for some ... others still think we`ll go down. Forum thread: Click Here
Must admit, I did the BBC Predictor and despite the fact I played it as miserably as I could, didn`t give Villa a single win up to the end of the season, we still remained 15th. The teams below us are used to fighting, so if we`d not picked up the 3 points v Wolves and if we`d not drawn v the two below us recently, I`d have us as going down, but we`ve kept that gap between us there and on that alone, I think we`ll stay up.
Obviously, the debate at the end of the season should be why the Eck (see what I did there?!) we are even having to look below at all. Paul Faulkner got ripped apart by some earlier in the season saying with the squad we have we should be top eight. I am not sure why he was ripped apart. We should be. Thing is, if a manager can`t get us at least to 10th then..............? Up, the axe should be out in my ever so humble.
BodyButter in the forum (Click Here ) said:
In the event that any of the teams below us were to win 4 of their last games, highly unlikely since they've only managed 5 or 6 wins all season, we'd still only need 5 points to be safe.
Here are the number of points that the relegation strugglers have got over the past ten games:
Aston Villa 11
So, if we lost every game and the other repeated their 'success' over the last ten games in the remaining 11 games we'd get a table (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables ) that looks like this:
Wolves 32 (12 games left)
Aston Villa 30
It's just not going to happen.
Date:Monday March 5 2012
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|1.||Pride of Lions||944|
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|15. Crystal Palace||12||3||3||6||-4||12|
|16. Aston Villa||12||3||3||6||-11||12|
|17. Hull City||12||2||5||5||-3||11|
|18. Leicester City||12||2||4||6||-7||10|
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