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Relegation? You're Having A Laugh

I think Gordonsleftboot must be a mind reader! I was setting out to do an article today on the relegation fight and hey presto, an article submission. So we`ll mix and match this I think!

First off, Gordonsleftboot says:

Relegation? You're having a laugh!

OK mathematically we could still go down. The probability of it happening is extremely remote.

Why?

Because with 11 games to go we are effectively 11 points (including goal difference) in front of 2 sides and 9 in front of 3 others.

These teams have taken an average of .71 and .81 points a game. On this basis they can achieve a further 8 and 9 points each. Assuming we take just 1 more point from 11 games and they follow the same pattern and we are safe.

OK maths is a poor predictor in football BUT if we are to be overtaken then 3 of these five teams are going to have to win at least 5 of their last 11 games if we keep getting the occasional draw. Likely? Nope.

Away from the maths, the key for me is the fitness of Petrov and Herd. Herd was immense at Blackburn and is a vital part of the midfield. He has come through from the youth with little fuss and may prove to be the best of the lot over time. Whilst Weimann only played for about 2 minutes, he had one attempt on goal and something about his approach marked him out as maybe the goalscorer we need.

Yes this is a season of transition and I'm as bored reading that phrase as anyone else. But the finances are getting sorted: the club has bitten the manager pay-offs bullet and profit from Young and Downing has not yet been shown in the accounts yet. Beye has gone, saving about 3% of revenue and other savings have and will be made. The mess left by other managers is being cleared out.

The club is turning the corner and is ready to rise again. The sooner the fans get back behind the club the better. The club will be safe this season, lets calm down and support the club.


Gordonsleftboot

We have a thread on the important four games (two now played... Wigan and Blackburn draws) which follows a similar theme for some ... others still think we`ll go down. Forum thread: Click Here

Must admit, I did the BBC Predictor and despite the fact I played it as miserably as I could, didn`t give Villa a single win up to the end of the season, we still remained 15th. The teams below us are used to fighting, so if we`d not picked up the 3 points v Wolves and if we`d not drawn v the two below us recently, I`d have us as going down, but we`ve kept that gap between us there and on that alone, I think we`ll stay up.

Obviously, the debate at the end of the season should be why the Eck (see what I did there?!) we are even having to look below at all. Paul Faulkner got ripped apart by some earlier in the season saying with the squad we have we should be top eight. I am not sure why he was ripped apart. We should be. Thing is, if a manager can`t get us at least to 10th then..............? Up, the axe should be out in my ever so humble.

BodyButter in the forum (Click Here ) said:

In the event that any of the teams below us were to win 4 of their last games, highly unlikely since they've only managed 5 or 6 wins all season, we'd still only need 5 points to be safe.

Here are the number of points that the relegation strugglers have got over the past ten games:

Aston Villa 11
QPR 6
Wolves 8
Blackburn 12
Bolton 8
Wigan 6

So, if we lost every game and the other repeated their 'success' over the last ten games in the remaining 11 games we'd get a table (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables ) that looks like this:

Blackburn 35
Wolves 32 (12 games left)
Aston Villa 30
QPR 29
Bolton 29
Wigan 27

It's just not going to happen.

Opinions folks?




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The Journalist

Writer: Gordonsleftboot / BodyButter Mail feedback, articles or suggestions

Date:Monday March 5 2012

Time: 1:26PM

Your Comments

Latest poll asks if we are staying up!
The Fear
Is this really what it's come to? When McLeish arrived, we all thought relegation. McLeish said, "Anything below 9th is a failure." Paul Faulkner then went public with quotes making McLeish look stupid saying we should finish this year in a Europa League spot. And here we are, 11 games left, 2 places above the drop and we're still not 100% certain of survival. This is pathetic! Why did I buy a season ticket? Anybody else feel like a complete mug right now?
astvil123
Goal difference isn't necessarily the saviour that we think. It's a statement of fact that in order for the above scenario to play out and us to lose all or most of our games, our goal difference will deteriorate accordingly. Similarly, in order for those below us to catch us, their goal difference must improve in line with their results. Now it doesn't make the scenario any more or less likely to happen. It's just that the goal difference might level itself out in the event that it does.
BOF
Good point BOF but I just don't see us not picking up a point between now and the end. Is this what we signed up for? No. But we now know what the board was looking at last Summer - a 50=m loss and no money to invest. They clearly knew how hard this season was going to be. The picture off the pitch is improving. On it and we have some of the younger players (hate the term kids) getting experience and a few are beginning to find their way. Things are looking up. Next year? The board needs to tell us that their target is 8th or higher and convince us that the resources will be in place to support the manager and team to achieve that. Even better would be a 3 year plan and target. They need to get some enthusiasm back into this great old club by giving us a positive vision for the future. Silence only allows doubt to creep in.
Gordonsleftboot
Well since Faulkner said we should be qualifying for Europe, then McLeish will be gone in the summer. Not getting relegated is not good enough for this club. But as for the present moment, the fact that we didn't let Wigan or Blackburn beat us will keep us safe. In fact no team underneath us has taken maximum points against us so far with only Bolton (h) left. Two, what should be winnable games coming up before the "run".
Stephen Jay Hawkings
We will draw another 3 which should be enough BUT only because there are 3 teams worse than us not because we're so great. Agree with your last post Gordon, things can only get better, looking forward etc. BUT we need a new manager full stop. A 3 year plan is definitely needed but with Eck in charge will be like groundhog day waiting for a relegation fight or just above, last on MOTD as no-one wants to watch us and going down the bookies and putting us down for a draw in the accumulator. Fulcker is just not a football man, infact none on the board appear to be. Needs to change.
Villan444
So thats it then..... We're not going down. Do we throw a party to celebrate?..... FFS, it barely papers over the cracks!!!! Don't be fooled shallow ones.... this is a transitional season, 'cus it'll be even worse next season if this Idiot stays......
Pride of Lions
looking at teh remaining fixtures I think we might just scrape it. Wolves could still finish above us, as could blackburn. I'd say QPR are dead and buried along with Wigan (who could easily not a get a point in april) which just leaves Bolton as the risk. It's unlikely that Bolton and wolves and blackburn can finish above us due to the games against each other, but the clincher will be the Bolton game coming up. Winning should see us safe but losing would be a disaster anyone care to bet we play for a draw?
AVbornandbred
For Villa to go down this season other teams would have to start doing a lot better, which on recent results looks unlikely. So personally, I see relegation as a long-term ambition for McLeish and the board. After a summer of selling off what remains of the talent and drafting in free-transfers and loanees, Villa should be better placed to fulfil their Championship ambitions.
Steve Wade
Steve Wade - do really believe Randy has invested what he has to take the club down?
Gordonsleftboot
Gordonsleftboot - no he made the investment to achieve CL qualification. His retrenchment is an effort to achieve something else - self-sustaining lesser team.
Steve Wade
We're the dark horses and il leave it at that... source: Alan McInally
CDX_EIRE
SJH - Wigan and Blackburn were both winnable games, but what happened? So with two "winnable" games coming up, expect NOT to win them. Also agree with Steve Wade and CDX_Eire - we're such dark horses, we're being lead to the knackers Yard by this Idiot!
Pride of Lions
Can we sign prozacovich to keep our chins up cos this season has been super depressing and for me one of the worst for some time. The manager has to take the full flack for this as his tactics never seem to change a game and we are bloody woeful to watch. We will never deserve to go down but we can hardly look forward to next season with more of this.
holte ender 1969
we will be fine, unless we lose the remainding 11 games. Which wouldnt surprise me.
leelindsay
I dont like the Aston Villa 30 QPR 29 Bolton 29 part
PussEKatt
Barring a disaster we should stay up agreed. And I agree we needed to get control of wages/spending hence Gordons transitional season is also accepted. Problem is Gordon how are you going to feel if we are faced with another 2 years of this ? My fear is that Villa Park will be half empty next season due to the poor fare being served up at the moment and once that depression sets in it will be even more difficult for the youngsters next season,as I believe we are not about to see any quality signings for some time.
Merlin128777
True dat Pride of Lions, but I said "winnable", I didn't say we would win them, even thinking about collecting all 6 points seems crazy and unrealistic. How sad is that? I suppose they're just more winnable than Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal away.
Stephen Jay Hawkings
We'll definitely stay up, but only by luck. We won't reach the 46 points West Ham got relegated with a few years back.
SchoolBoyError
 

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