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Villa's Battle For 4th Place - We Can Do It!

Statsmasters 'battle for 4th' predictions

Hello Hello, Just thought I'd share my thoughts regarding the run-in towards the end of the season.

Much has been said, and although we're still a good few games off finishing, fans of Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham and Villa will probably all agree that this season is shaping up to be the most exciting finish for some time.

Just a couple of interesting points on villa.

Firstly, in the last 2 seasons we took a total of 6 points off the so-called 'top 4', whereas this season, we already have a haul of 11 points, with Chelsea still to play at the bridge..

Secondly, we're 1 point above where we were in 07/08, and 6 points behind where we were last season.

However, as villa fans, we all remember very vividly what happened at this stage last season, we went on to get 4 points in 8 games. This season, we have a little more strength in depth (with the possible exception of up front). With this in mind, I've done what the lads on vital Spurs have done, and (albeit using my villa-tinted glasses) tried to predict how our results might go, and how the results of our 3 friends might fall.

This is how I see our remaining fixtures panning out:

Sunderland (H) - Draw - 1 point
Stoke (A) - Draw - 1 point
Wigan (A) - Win - 3 points
Wolves (H) - Win - 3 points
Chelsea (A) - Loss - 0 points
Bolton (A) - Win - 3 points
Everton (H) - Draw - 1 point
Pompey (A) - Win - 3 points
Birmingham (H) - Draw - 1 point
City (A) - Draw - 1 point
Blackburn (H) - Win - 3 points
Hull (A) - Win - 3 points

Again, maybe a slightly villa-biased view, but certainly not beyond the realms of possibility given the games we have. This would yield us a return of 68 points. I've done the same thing for our competitors, although I wont share those predictions with you as I don't know if my flame suit will hold up against 4 clubs fans, let alone just ours! But, based on my predictions, I get to this as the final top-4 standing:

4 Villa 68
5 Liverpool 67
6 Man City 64
7 Tottenham 63
8 Everton 62

Everton do have a relatively easy run in, but that 7 points does make a heck of a difference, and I believe it would take something extra special from them to force it into the 4th spot. Anyway, just my thoughts at this stage, and as we all know, it's a funny old game!

Your thoughts appreciated!

Ericols_Son




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The Journalist

Writer: Ericols_Son Mail feedback, articles or suggestions

Date:Thursday February 25 2010

Time: 2:43PM

Your Comments (oldest first)

Change to most recent first
Good article on the battle in the Times last Saturday (thanks to a mate who posted it through for me!)
Patrick Barclay, who often is a guest on the Sunday Supplement on Sky Sports (love that show) predicts:
4th Villa
5th Liverpool
6th City
7th Spurs

He also says Villa were 'the most convincing contenders for years' last season but that we dropped off due to lack of depth, a problem he says this season we'll not suffer.
The Fear
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25/02/2010 14:47:00

Good article on the battle in the Times last Saturday (thanks to a mate who posted it through for me!)
Patrick Barclay, who often is a guest on the Sunday Supplement on Sky Sports (love that show) predicts:
4th Villa
5th Liverpool
6th City
7th Spurs

He also says Villa were 'the most convincing contenders for years' last season but that we dropped off due to lack of depth, a problem he says this season we'll not suffer.
The Fear
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25/02/2010 14:47:00

Great article, thanks for the mention about Patrick as well Fear. I don't want to think about actually finishing 4th, but I can't help it, we are in with such a good shout and much like last season the only way we won't make it is if we fluff it ourselves
davidsands1982
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25/02/2010 14:52:00

Great article, thanks for the mention about Patrick as well Fear. I don't want to think about actually finishing 4th, but I can't help it, we are in with such a good shout and much like last season the only way we won't make it is if we fluff it ourselves
davidsands1982
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25/02/2010 14:52:00

With our defence (All Hail!!!) I can't see us randomly fluffing games against Wigan, Blackburn, Hull, etc ....

Very naive maybe but I feel we as Villains have just reason to be confident :-)
davidsands1982
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25/02/2010 14:54:00

With our defence (All Hail!!!) I can't see us randomly fluffing games against Wigan, Blackburn, Hull, etc ....

Very naive maybe but I feel we as Villains have just reason to be confident :-)
davidsands1982
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25/02/2010 14:54:00

You still deploying that 11 man defence that you did against us (spurs) in the 2 games we've played this season....ONLY JOKING!!! you have the easiest fixtures if there is such a thing but your predictions leave you losing only 1 game in the next 12 and bearing in mind you've got 7 away and only 5 at home i think its a prediction def with villa tinted glasses, should go down to the wire and no matter what it will be close.
daveeeeed ginola
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25/02/2010 15:16:00

You still deploying that 11 man defence that you did against us (spurs) in the 2 games we've played this season....ONLY JOKING!!! you have the easiest fixtures if there is such a thing but your predictions leave you losing only 1 game in the next 12 and bearing in mind you've got 7 away and only 5 at home i think its a prediction def with villa tinted glasses, should go down to the wire and no matter what it will be close.
daveeeeed ginola
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25/02/2010 15:16:00

On your current poll how come you don't have an option of: Carling Cup AND FA Cup AND fourth?
chocolate teapot
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25/02/2010 15:23:00

Well Mr Ginola we haven't lost in 2010 (yet :)) so why not only lose 1 out of 12??
avnath
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25/02/2010 15:24:00

Well Mr Ginola we haven't lost in 2010 (yet :)) so why not only lose 1 out of 12??
avnath
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25/02/2010 15:24:00

As my fellow spurs fan "daveeeeed ginola" says the whole thing will go down to the wire. I feel there are many options still to play out, what I do think is Man. City may fall away as they have hit their bad patch it seems. I feel myself it will be between Villa and Spurs for 4th place. Also I find the poll interesting that at present 53% of Villa fans have gone for the FA or Carling Cup option and only 14% for the 4th place option, I think that says alot.
Ox Yid
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25/02/2010 15:59:00

As my fellow spurs fan "daveeeeed ginola" says the whole thing will go down to the wire. I feel there are many options still to play out, what I do think is Man. City may fall away as they have hit their bad patch it seems. I feel myself it will be between Villa and Spurs for 4th place. Also I find the poll interesting that at present 53% of Villa fans have gone for the FA or Carling Cup option and only 14% for the 4th place option, I think that says alot.
Ox Yid
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25/02/2010 15:59:00

agreed, this could well go down to the wire, just hope our local derby doesn't prove to be a key match! I just can't start to get my head around finishing 4th, years of experience = expecting the worst but hoping for the best! lol
the fear
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25/02/2010 16:01:00

agreed, this could well go down to the wire, just hope our local derby doesn't prove to be a key match! I just can't start to get my head around finishing 4th, years of experience = expecting the worst but hoping for the best! lol
the fear
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25/02/2010 16:01:00

Well Mr Avnath its only my opinion and there is no reason you cant get 36 points from the next 12 games, i just think you'll lose 2-3 games. Away to stoke I think they could nick that, Away to Bolton and Wigan another couple of hard Away games. These teams are very poor on the road but at home battling for survival who knows....could be worse tho you could have man u, ars and chelsea in row!
daveeeeed ginola
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25/02/2010 16:07:00

I can't see Spurs being near to getting fourth come the end of the season so I wouldn't worry about them, I think Everton need to be monitored maybe Man City but they'll probably just fall short so I think Villa have a good chance I think.
arthur7171
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25/02/2010 16:07:00

Well Mr Avnath its only my opinion and there is no reason you cant get 36 points from the next 12 games, i just think you'll lose 2-3 games. Away to stoke I think they could nick that, Away to Bolton and Wigan another couple of hard Away games. These teams are very poor on the road but at home battling for survival who knows....could be worse tho you could have man u, ars and chelsea in row!
daveeeeed ginola
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25/02/2010 16:07:00

I can't see Spurs being near to getting fourth come the end of the season so I wouldn't worry about them, I think Everton need to be monitored maybe Man City but they'll probably just fall short so I think Villa have a good chance I think.
arthur7171
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25/02/2010 16:07:00

I agree Arthur i think Spurs will end up in 8th. Also agree that Stoke and Wigan away are both very tough games, so i think we'll know a lot more about our chances in 3 games time.
MrZeus
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25/02/2010 16:11:00

I agree Arthur i think Spurs will end up in 8th. Also agree that Stoke and Wigan away are both very tough games, so i think we'll know a lot more about our chances in 3 games time.
MrZeus
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25/02/2010 16:11:00

it might hard as hell to get that prediction. plus you have a CC final and the FA cup games. What is gonna be your priority? Hard stuff, as you get the easiest list of games and yet you have at least 2 more games then the rest of the gang...
vangogo
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25/02/2010 16:12:00

it might hard as hell to get that prediction. plus you have a CC final and the FA cup games. What is gonna be your priority? Hard stuff, as you get the easiest list of games and yet you have at least 2 more games then the rest of the gang...
vangogo
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25/02/2010 16:12:00

I don't think we have much of a chance. WE'll be 6th or 7th, and to be fair I would be delighted with that considering the unfair fake money being splashed around above us. Plus we've got a Cup final and the hope of continuing our FA cup run. I would rather sit back and spend wisely with the resources we have (like Everton) than go bankrupt in a couple of years. A football club is a business at the end of the day.
Mikey D-Man
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25/02/2010 16:15:00

I don't think we have much of a chance. WE'll be 6th or 7th, and to be fair I would be delighted with that considering the unfair fake money being splashed around above us. Plus we've got a Cup final and the hope of continuing our FA cup run. I would rather sit back and spend wisely with the resources we have (like Everton) than go bankrupt in a couple of years. A football club is a business at the end of the day.
Mikey D-Man
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25/02/2010 16:15:00

Yep, agreed that those games will be difficult - having said that, we smashed bolton 5-1 at home, and with them 2nd bottom, i'd have said we were a shoe-in for the win?! This article isn't designed to show any disrespect to any other teams btw. vangogo - easy, MON just prioritises every game regardless of how knackered the players are!!
Ericols_Son
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25/02/2010 16:23:00

Yep, agreed that those games will be difficult - having said that, we smashed bolton 5-1 at home, and with them 2nd bottom, i'd have said we were a shoe-in for the win?! This article isn't designed to show any disrespect to any other teams btw. vangogo - easy, MON just prioritises every game regardless of how knackered the players are!!
Ericols_Son
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25/02/2010 16:23:00

1 defeat in 12? Optimistic id say, although you do have arguably the easiest run in. I did the same and i had Liverpool 4th on 67pts, Spurs 66pts Villa 66pts and City 61pts i had us just on goal difference - and thats including 4 defeats. Its anybodys game, but i think scousers will nick it.
HuddersfieldYiddo
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25/02/2010 16:24:00

1 defeat in 12? Optimistic id say, although you do have arguably the easiest run in. I did the same and i had Liverpool 4th on 67pts, Spurs 66pts Villa 66pts and City 61pts i had us just on goal difference - and thats including 4 defeats. Its anybodys game, but i think scousers will nick it.
HuddersfieldYiddo
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25/02/2010 16:24:00

Ericols_son that was kinda my point, away Bolton are awful but they battle at home and dont role over, them being 2nd from bottom is worse for you then them being safetly in 13th cos they will need the win!
daveeeeed ginola
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25/02/2010 16:36:00

Ericols_son that was kinda my point, away Bolton are awful but they battle at home and dont role over, them being 2nd from bottom is worse for you then them being safetly in 13th cos they will need the win!
daveeeeed ginola
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25/02/2010 16:36:00

Reckon that there's 7 wins there. The other 5 could go any way. Can see the scousers getting an equal amount and then goal difference. Man City and Spuz have lost their way though and with no Tevez and Lennon, they have proved to be one dimensional.
Villan444
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25/02/2010 16:44:00

I think we will beat Blose .. they have finished there flukey run and are about to slide down the table .
Doug4ever
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25/02/2010 17:25:00

I think we will beat Blose .. they have finished there flukey run and are about to slide down the table .
Doug4ever
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25/02/2010 17:25:00

would take 8th and the FA Cup AND Carling Cup. Now that WOULD be a good season! lol
The Fear
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25/02/2010 18:23:00

I'll take all of the above - but I think Liverpool will finish 4th. We didn't punish them enough when they had their bad run.
los_angeles_villan
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25/02/2010 19:02:00

I'll take all of the above - but I think Liverpool will finish 4th. We didn't punish them enough when they had their bad run.
los_angeles_villan
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25/02/2010 19:02:00

I can see us winning every game from here on in, starting on Sunday.
RiF
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25/02/2010 19:06:00

I can see us winning every game from here on in, starting on Sunday.
RiF
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25/02/2010 19:06:00

LA - I still haven't seen Liverpool perform that well this season atall. I hope they don't get it. That said, I wouldn't want Spuds or $ity to get it, either. So maybe Everton just go on a spree or we sneak in there. Surely we'd have about 3 games-in-hands by the time our next league game comes around anyway? It's close to being in our own hands.
benji_starsky_avfc
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25/02/2010 21:48:00

LA - I still haven't seen Liverpool perform that well this season atall. I hope they don't get it. That said, I wouldn't want Spuds or $ity to get it, either. So maybe Everton just go on a spree or we sneak in there. Surely we'd have about 3 games-in-hands by the time our next league game comes around anyway? It's close to being in our own hands.
benji_starsky_avfc
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25/02/2010 21:48:00

It is in our own hands we play Man Citeh, so if we win that that wipes out the lead they have over us, then win the others we can't be caught because of our game in hand
ant1ant1
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25/02/2010 21:57:00

It is in our own hands we play Man Citeh, so if we win that that wipes out the lead they have over us, then win the others we can't be caught because of our game in hand
ant1ant1
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25/02/2010 21:57:00

I hate to say it but Im still not convinced we are ready for champs league yet, unless all the funds it raised would go straight to the transfer kitty. for me 5th place and silverware is a terrific season, then one more season of squad building with 2 or 3 quality additions then that will be our time. Ill still take it if it comes though!!
claretandbluearmy
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25/02/2010 22:26:00

C&BArmy, that's how I thought last year when we seemed to be in a very good position for fourth. This year though I am more comfortable about CL qualification. Our squad is really only one or two players short of the standard required to do well. Also bear in mind that next year MUST be the coming of age of the likes of Clarke, Fonz, Delph and Albrighton, and that's before we dip into the market. If we get fourth we will spend some money, if we don't get fourth we will probably not spend much at all, only to replace any departures.
andy5759
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25/02/2010 22:40:00

i think villa will gwt 5th and a cup i got a sneeky feeling we will get both cups ths season and that would be some achievement
black_villian
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26/02/2010 00:52:00

Definitely the easiest run of fixtures to end the season. 4th is well within your grasp. Liverpool is your competition. Spurs and City have tough schedules.
Teddy_KGB
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26/02/2010 00:55:00

 

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