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A Science Write Up On Villa



Well I have just completed my annual '13 games to go predictions' and decided to compare us to Arsenal, because in my opinion, it is all about getting in that top 4 (Man Utd are going to walk away with the title).


I plan to estimate the likelihood that Villa will make it into the top 4 this season, through the medium of guesswork. I shall compare the fixtures of the 2 main protagonists, Arsenal and Aston Villa.


- My head
- not my heart
- fingers for typing



Villa 0 v 0 Chelsea
Villa 2 v 0 Stoke City
Man City 2 v 1 Villa
Liverpool 1 v 1 Villa
Man United 2 v 1 Villa
Villa 2 v 1 Everton
Villa 3 v 1 West Ham
Bolton 1 v 1 Villa
Villa 3 v 0 Hull City
Fulham 1 v 1 Villa
Middlesbrough 1 v 2 Villa
Villa 3 v 1 Newcastle


Arsenal 2 v 1 Sunderland
Arsenal 1 v 0 Fulham
West Brom 1 v 1 Arsenal
Arsenal 1 v 0 Blackburn
Newcastle 2 v 2 Arsenal
Arsenal 1 v 1 Man City
Wigan Athletic 1 v 2 Arsenal
Liverpool 0 v 0 Arsenal
Arsenal 2 v 0 Middlesbrough
Portsmouth 1 v 2 Arsenal
Arsenal 1 v 1 Chelsea
Manchester United 2 v 1 Arsenal
Arsenal 3 v 0 Stoke City


Villa would obtain 25 points, Arsenal, 26. With the 7 point advantage, that would put Villa in the Champions League. I would forecast strong growth from that point from the claret and blue subject, meanwhile, a degree of stagnation may take place in North London.

If Villa are ahead of Arsenal by the time we play West Ham, we will have a seriously good chance of making it (look at both sides' last 6 games!)


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The Journalist

Writer: ric112 Mail feedback, articles or suggestions

Date:Tuesday February 10 2009

Time: 9:00AM

Your Comments

ric112 Arse like Villa still have the top three to play those matches will I feel be the deciders.
You forgot the Spurs game on the 15 March. I assume you put us down for a win. as your points total would suggest.
Is anyone expecting any less?
the only thing that concerns me with le ars.e is the have eduardo coming back, and the potential emergence of their latest signing; arseshavings. heaven forbid they start scoring goals.
It might be worth running a similar exercise for chelsea
i did indeed heathfield. oops. scholari being sacked might change everything for chelsea, and i could have included liverpool but there ya go
I can't say I think we'll win at Wigan, but then I do think we'll beat West Brom & Newcastle. The other thing you have to take into account is that by the time we play Man Utd they'll most likely have won the league, so Ferguson will more than likely be saving his best players for a possible CL or FA cup final. I think Villa will finish 3rd, its between Arsenal & Chelsea for 4th. I think Chelsea will probably edge it depending on their new manager.
Ashburton Gooner
i think we should not have any expectations. its the way MON has talked about it the whole way this season. keeping a lid on it. the win and the way we went about it at blackburn felt like an important one going into chelsea. its the best way to think, one by one...
I don't get it! You have us down for just one away win for the rest of the season and have us drawing away to Bolton AND Fulham. We have the best away record in the prem this season but you have us being stronger at home, something that has not been born out by results. I'm sorry but the head you claim to be using is way out of date and needs a sofware upggrade!
Villan Of The North
Have to agree with VotN, home games against Hull and Stoke are most likely to be 0-0 on this season so far as they will put 10 men behind the ball, away games against strugglers such as Bolton and Fulham are surely gonna be wins for us. Start of season I would have accepted 5th with good cup runs but now I would be totally gutted if we missed out on a top four. I agree it's united's league to lose but Chelsea and Liverpool could be there for the taking. Really think we might finish 3rd, but 2nd would be nice, trying to take one game at a time though.
Don't agree with many of those ric112 and I think that we will only need to 8 wins out of our remaining 13 games not considering draws. That gives us 5 losses still in hand. Possibly against Manure, Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton and Westaaaam. All the other games are very winnable and Arsenal will never win 11 of their remaining 13.
I think science is out of the window. We are in uncharted territory for most of our team, and possibly MON. I can see us losing games we think we should win, but perversely beating teams we don't expect to. The next 13 games will show us all just how good MON is. I am in the Pro MON at this time, and hope I am right. I just can't get rid of this feeling that if we lose one we'll lose a few more. Is this just because of past history? Is this a brave new Aston Villa?
Ashburton Gooner, we did win at Wigan! 4-0! But maybe you mean you dont think Arsenal will win at Wigan, I don't think they will. Otherwise, I think that is very logical! It seems even a conservative estimate of what may happen. It would be interesting to run the same experiment with Everton and Arsenal, because I have a feeling that Everton may catch them and pip them to fifth! What isn't in the experiment is the eventuality of us having a long run in either or both of the UEFA and FA Cups! That might drain our strength and resources, and or injurie risks. This could also result in points loss. But all things said and done, I really believe we are going to make it in the top 4, or possibly even finish 3rd!
Hope all this dont jinx us
No such thing as up Everton away in the FA Cup. Me personally I am not looking past that game! I am certain that the players and MON are also just concentrating on this too. Take each game at a time and see where we finish after 38 league games. Then I MIGHT start giving the Chelski and Arsenal fans some stick, but until that time I will remain very quiet as anything can happen.
Its just abit of fun fellas, i certainly wont be putting my money on all them results to come it, well actually what odds would i get?
I think that the approach which has seen us do so well this season is to take a game at a time, and i will continue with this. I won't beleive we're top 4 until the final whistle in the last game is blown. Concerning FA cup and/or Uefa cup runs, i think that they can only do us good. Winning breeds confidence, and as Milner said the other day confidence is key!
Glad to see you are not taking us as rrealistic 4th place contenders! :) Hope you guys make it!!!

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