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Villa - What's The Story?

What's the story?

This last week has been so fraught with excitement, perhaps its time to take stock. I find it very difficult, impossible in fact, to believe Martin O'Neill came to Aston Villa without the strongest possible assurances that Ellis was about to go, perhaps before the start of the season.

O'Neill is intensely ambitious but so far in his career he has had neither the resources or, at Celtic, the stage to compete with the likes of Mourinho, Ferguson, Wenger, or more latterly, Liverpool and Spurs. Only with new wealthy owners at Villa Park would he at last have that chance.

He wants to establish himself as one of 'the greats'. MO'N didn't come to Villa to languish in safe mid-table. We keep hearing from very reliable sources that Lerner and O'Neill have already held talks and that O'Neill was his choice for manager. Isn't that very odd?

So far, despite all the rumours, the American has yet to make a formal bid, yet apparently the two men had talks several weeks ago. Did Neville (and whatever happened to him?) or Still have actual talks with O'Neill? I don't believe so. {ed comment, I believe Neville has}

Incidentally, how did Lerner ever get to hear about O'Neill? I live in France, and I can tell you that although Martin might be a bit of a managerial legend in the UK, he is far less well known in Europe, nevermind America. Congratulations to Lerner's team of researchers. I think things have happened back-stage that we will probably never know about. But times, they are a-changin'.

And Amen to that.

Article by Saurat




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The Journalist

Writer: J P Fear Mail feedback, articles or suggestions

Date:Tuesday August 8 2006

Time: 11:44AM

Your Comments

Lerner has been researching opportunities in the UK for many months ans, as a well educated man, he will have prepared himself very well. He will have almost certainly earmarked key management personnel; of which M'O'N is just one, but a very important one. Martin obviously wants Lerner's bid to be successful and by accepting the post, Still's proposal has been given a "set-back". Forget Neville, he's Ellis's "plant" to "up-the-anti", which Lerner will have guessed. Padfield? - just another "chancer" hoping to make a "fast buck" - but not at our expense, if we can possibly avoiid it. Lerner is the only serious one in the frame, so don't be surprised if he plays hard-ball with Ellis, and good luck to him; but we may have to be patient for a little longer than we'd hoped.
villacross
im just wondering whe he (randy) hasnt tabled a bid yet. He obviously isnt waiting to raise the funds, so it tells me he has either not made his mind up or is trying to come to an agreed price with Ellis. A week is a long time in football so I will only believe it when it happens.
tylervilla
I've just tried to explain - Lerner probably suspects that there are no other "real" contenders - so he'll wait as long as possible and at the same time put Ellis on his "back-foot". If there are other contenders, he'll wait for them to move first; if they don't I would expect he'll offer what the the club is realistically worth - less than 50mill. - so if anyone has got shares my advice is to sell them at anything above 4.50!
villacross
I hope your right and I hope Lerner hurrys the chuff up.
tylervilla
hasn't neville already put in a bid..?
deemz
No, just and official intention to put in a bid....a bit pointless really.
Villain Of The North
You never know, there may be no bid at all. Then Ellis stays for yet another year. Sorry but it's just as likely when you have no bids coming in.
Steve64k
i belive its got to happen because ellis knows if it doesnt theere will be a backlash from the fans even with MON in charge
No.1_villan
Come on now, positive thoughts !! We have the best manager in the uk !! we will soon have the best owner in the premiership !! Ellis will sell his health is deteriorating, he's 82 !!! There is only 1 bid i think he will give time of day to , that's Randy's ! Come on Lerner ! Put in a bid !!! Doug's time is over ! !
jaspervilla
Thats the point - Randy has to put a bid in and at the mo there is no real indication that he will. If there is show me but all we have so far is pure speculation and Ellis saying talks are on going about the possibility of talks and a bid.
Steve64k
FINANCIAL RESULTS I would like to know which clubs aren't loosing money. As far as I know it's probably only Man Utd in the premier and they are in a funny situation with Glazier's financial arrangement. Arsenal may be in the black but their stadium would have pushed them into the red and Liverpool definately lost to the tune of 6-7 mil. Forget Chelsea because they are just waiting for extinction - Roman's short term masturbating session will come to an end and Chelsea as a club will cease to be. All in all the financial results at VP are what you may expect for a club that is underachieving. I see no reason to be suprised at this result but having said this, Ellis has to take responsiblility because he is the man at the helm.
Steve64k
If Lerner still wants to buy and Ellis will not sell for less than 64 mill. Lerner will need to invest a total of 180 mill to buy the shares, underwrite losses (25 mill) and increase the "Player Spend" budget by another 90mill. over the next 3 years; for M.O'N. to compete on a level playing-field with the other Top Clubs, in order to attract the best players. Anything less than that is not likely to get us back into the Top4 and no European Fotball. Does anyone think that Lerner or anyone else is that keen?
villacross
A few facts to realise here is that Randy Lerner as not forwarded a bid, as as not said he will, its just the media in england who are saying he is the favourite, Michael Neville as someone as stated previously is possibly working for Ellis to " up the ante ", no other bids are in place, villa are in limbo, and lets be honest Lerner is only a billionaire in US DOLLARS, not pounds so his actual money is probably about 800 million.....We won,t if he does buy the club go on a Chelsea style spree spending like wildfire, Something actually makes me don,t like the look of Lerner anyway especially after the casino rumours, perhaps he is only interested in the assets of AVFC for his own gain, only time will tell
villa b6
All this talk of how much money Lerner will need to invest is bo***x due to the following points:1) he does not need to buy the entire share issue to controll the club, just the Ellis adn Petchy shares (about 60%) which will cost him about 38,5 million. 2) In big business you don't always pay your debts, you just keep paying the bank the intrest fees - much cheaper unless you are looking at a 30-50year time period (few do as most investors at this level will be dead during that period) 3) We don't know what O'Neill wants to do with the squad, my personal feeling is that he can use the squad we have a a good foundation to build on and invest over a period of several years as opposed to 1-2 serasons - as steve64k says, who wants to do a Chelski, I don't. 4)On the point of money again, not all good players cost an absolute fortune - everone tells me that Olly is world class (or at least was before O'Leary ruined him) and the same goes for Baros, combined fee (approx)11 million. Few teams buy more than 2-3 high profile players in a season. Even Chelski (who probably overpay for most of their players as other chairmen hold them to ransom) don't pay huge money for all their players. 5)We don't knnow what, if anything, is coming through the youth system. 6)We don't know either O'Neill's or Lerner's agender concerning timescale. 7)We have yet to see what the O'Neill effect will do with our current players 8)Who knows if we will produce a Rooney to sell on. Yes he's a great player but I think I'd rather have 2 world class players (which is absolutely possible) for the money generated by his sale, than to keep Rooney. Sermon is over.........for now. :o)
Villain Of The North
It's all academic really. There has been no bids and its pure speculation as to the motives of MON joining Villa. We are all in a state of disbelief about MON joining Villa so we naturally assume there is more to it than a manager of his quality (although I still feel this has to be proven in the Premiership) simply joining a club because it suits him to join us at this particular juncture. I believe Ellis will leave because of his age but I don't think we will ever know the all the reasons why MON join Villa. I also seem to remember the amount of excitement when DOL became Villa manager. I would council against getting too excited this season. Mid table is the best I think we can hope for whilst MON builds the team to his liking. I just hope there is more imagination than just a long ball game or else we will all be looking to the heavens.
Steve64k
Hi Steve (again) I agree. Unfortunately "V-of-North" can't see the wood for the trees. What I said in effect was that Lerner will stand back and look at the worst case scenario. He has to be prepared to invest the maximum required in order not to lose all of his investment. The worst case scenario for him is 180mill. Perhaps M.O'N can perform a miracle and get Top4 positions spending just an extra 10mill every season, but this means Lerner having to invest 120 mill at the very least. He may decide just to buy sufficient to give him 51% control but this would be most unlikely - he would almost certainly want 100% to make Villa a subsidiary company and use the considerabe tax losses to set against his profits taxes. So there you have it - we'll just have to wait to see what Randy decides to do. But I can assure you it will be in Lerner's best interests and no the Villas!
villacross
Losing 2-1 to Nijmegen! Let me be the first to say it - O'Neill out!
Saurat
 

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